Is Nuclear Power an Environmentally Friendly Energy Source? Evidence from The United States

Abstract

We empirically investigate environmental sustainability of nuclear power by analyzing long-term trends in nuclear electricity production in the United States. Utilizing quarterly time-series data from the World Bank spanning 1990 to 2024, we adopt an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling framework to analyze and forecast Electricity production from nuclear sources (% of total), the dependent variable. The model incorporates autoregressive (AR) and moving average (MA) components as independent variables. Estimation via Conditional Least Squares (CLS) reveals a statistically significant negative coefficient for MA(4) (-0.964), indicating a strong corrective response to shocks occurring four quarters earlier. AR(1) coefficient of 0.838 reflects a high degree of persistence, suggesting that current production levels are heavily influenced by past values. The model demonstrates strong explanatory power with an adjusted R-squared of 0.7638. Diagnostic tests confirm the robustness of the model, indicating covariance stationarity, invertibility, and absence of serial correlation. Projections indicate a gradual decline in the share of nuclear power in electricity generation, from 18.6% in 2025 to 18.2% by 2045. Although nuclear power is often lauded for its low greenhouse gas emissions, our findings challenge its classification as environmentally friendly, citing enduring concerns over radioactive waste management, accident risk, and broader ecological impacts. We conclude that the long-term sustainability of nuclear power as a green energy source is questionable and urge policymakers to carefully weigh its environmental trade-offs while prioritizing investment in cleaner, safer, and more sustainable renewable energy alternatives.