Climate Change Optimization Policy for River Basins, Southern, Nigeria

Abstract

The background of the problems investigated are; temperature variations and management lapse led to climate change crisis, appreciable variation in flood disaster, impact and fluctuation in precipitation also led to climate change crisis, deforestation impact on the ecosystems led to climate change crisis, erosion matters, the greenhouse gases caused by fuel combustion,   carbon monoxide from households, automobiles and industrial emissions, are harmful to human health, wildlife and ecosystem., organizational inadequacies, financial constraints, sharing cost in multipurpose water projects etc. The work is aimed at climate change optimization policy for river basins, southeastern, Nigeria, using finite  The objectives of the study are to develop a blueprint/layout that addresses the problems stated in this research work, develop a model that addresses the climate change crises using the Markov decision theory for the optimal solution in the five-river basins. The methodology involves the recursive mathematics with the finite stage method of Markov chains, questionnaires were developed and distributed, data were collected, the Pearson product-moment correlation was carried out as validity check and Bill of Engineering Measurement and Evaluation was developed. The results showed the total expected revenues or returns for the ten years of minimum capacity utilization of the basin’s assets without maintenance are; F1(1) = N53.947Trillion in year 1 is very excellent, F1(2) = N54.932Trillion in year 2 is excellent, F1(3) = N56.165Trillion in year 3 is very good, F1(4) = N55.353Trillion in year 4 is good, F1(5) = N55.985Trillion in year 5 is very fair, F1(6) = N56.817Trillion in year 6 is fair, F1(7) = N59.037Trillion in year 7 is weak, F1(8) = N60.013Trillion in year 8 is very weak, F1(9) = N63.088Trillion in year 9 is poor, F1(10) = N65.082Trillion in year 10 is very poor. Thereafter the finite number of ten (10) years, there should be maintenance of the five river basins assets in the southern, Nigeria in 2026. The result further showed that the allocation for the five river basins in the southern, Nigeria from 2015 to 2020 is N98.756 Billion naira and when compared to the total return on investment for ten (10) years, a total expected revenue of N529.21 Trillion naira is generated from the five river basins. If the allocation for the capital projects, in five years from the federal government for the five-river basins, southern Nigeria of N98.756Billion naira is deducted from the N529.21Trillion generated, then the federal government will make a profit margin of N529.11Trillion naira from the investment. The work concluded that, the tests for hypothesis confirmed 100% performance level of the five-river basins assets in the southern part of Nigeria in real world higher than the theoretical expected results with high component interaction. And an additional instrument application of Pearson product-moment correlation with coefficient, (r) = 1.00, confirms the high performance of the system. The work recommended this work to the federal government of Nigeria for the realization of her vision 2040 and should promulgate a Law for implementation of the outcome this research work. The work contributed to knowledge such that, the computational difficulty, so prominent in dynamic programming refers to as the “curse of dimensionality” had been solved by the new inventory model of simulation modeling in Markov chains.