Territorial Profiles of Road Risk in Tunisia: Structure and Severity of Road Traffic Accidents

Abstract

The number, severity and structure of road accidents vary from one Tunisian governorate to another. This study aims to identify the territorial profiles of road risk and the main dimensions that explain the differences between governorates. Data from the National Road Safety Observatory for 2024 were used. They cover the 24 Tunisian governorates. Indicators of severity, causes, road users and road context were analyzed. A Multiple Factor Analysis (MFA) was then used to integrate these groups of variables and identify the main dimensions of territorial differentiation. The results were also mapped. The results show that the number of accidents does not necessarily reflect their severity. Tunis has the highest number of accidents, while Kairouan has the highest fatality rate per 100 accidents, despite a much lower number of accidents. The first three dimensions of the MFA explain 62.89% of the variance. The first dimension is mainly related to severity and road context. The second mainly concerns causes and road users. The third is related to manoeuvres, road crossing and motorcycles. Finally, the results show that the territorial profiles of road risk in Tunisia are multidimensional and cannot be explained by the number of accidents alone. Nor do they follow a simple geographical division between north and south or between the coast and the interior. Understanding road risk therefore requires taking into account both the severity and the structure of accidents.