Somalia's Conflict with Al-Shabaab: Causes, the Limits of a Military Solution, and the Case for a Negotiated Settlement

Abstract

Somalia's protracted conflict with Al-Shabaab, now approaching two decades in duration, represents one of the most persistent violent insurgencies on the African continent. This article traces the conflict's origins to the religious repression of the Siad Barre regime and the transnational radicalisation associated with the Afghan–Soviet war, predating the commonly cited 2006 emergence of Al-Shabaab as the radical youth wing of the Islamic Courts Union. It examines the trajectory and limitations of the primarily military response led by the African Union Mission in Somalia (AMISOM), which was mandated and authorized by the African Union Peace and Security Council and the United Nations Security Council in Somalia in 2007, and its subsequent replacement mission known as the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), established on 1 April 2022. The most recent successor mission is known as the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), endorsed by the AU Peace and Security Council on 1 August 2024 and subsequently authorised by the UN Security Council (UNSC) on 27 December 2024. It argues that despite tactical gains and a substantial financial and human cost, this approach has produced a costly stalemate rather than resolution. These transitions underscore the persistent complexity of restoring peace and stability in Somalia. Drawing a comparative analogy with the United Kingdom's protracted counterinsurgency against the Irish Republican Army and its eventual resolution through the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, the article contends that the Somali conflict is fundamentally political rather than purely military in character, and that durable peace requires a phased, dual-track strategy combining calibrated security operations with genuine, Somali-owned political engagement. The defection and subsequent political reintegration of former Al-Shabaab deputy leader Mukhtar Robow is examined as an illustrative, if incomplete, precedent for reconciliation pathways. The article wraps up by highlighting several critical components necessary for establishing an inclusive governance framework. It emphasizes the importance of credible federalism, which ensures that diverse regional interests are represented and that power is decentralized to allow for effective local governance. Additionally, the article discusses the need for equitable resource sharing to ensure that all communities benefit fairly from national resources, thereby reducing potential grievances. Furthermore, the importance of community-level support is underscored, as genuine buy-in from local populations is vital for the legitimacy and sustainability of any negotiated settlement. This approach should incorporate both pragmatic and nationalist elements to appeal to a broad spectrum of stakeholders, including members of Al-Shabaab. A successful resolution will require addressing the underlying issues that have fueled conflict while fostering an environment of collaboration and mutual respect among all involved parties.