Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Countries’ Fragility
Keywords:National fragility, Climate change, Integrated assessment, Regression modeling, GM(1,1) prediction
“Fragility” is a comprehensive index that measures different indicators, which is used to assess the degree of instability of a country. Mathematical models such as evaluation, regression and prediction are comprehensively used to explore the relationship between climate change and national fragility in this paper. Based on the conditions given in each question, the impact of climate changes on each factor and the total index was analyzed in this paper, accordingly, giving the specific index system to define the national vulnerability. After verifying, the model of this paper is reasonable and has practical significance.