The Prospect of a Third World War: Analysis of Trump Interventionism and the Emerging New World Order

Abstract

This paper examines whether contemporary United States foreign policy under President Donald Trump increases the probability of a third world war, analysing the interventionist dimensions of the "America First" doctrine and its implications for the emerging global order. Drawing on primary documents including the 2025 National Security Strategy, scholarly analyses from international relations journals, and contemporaneous reporting on diplomatic and military actions, the study identifies four mechanisms through which Trump-era foreign policy potentially escalates systemic risk: the dismantling of multilateral constraints on the use of force, the substitution of transactional coercion for rules-based diplomacy, the redefinition of spheres of influence through threatened or actual military intervention and the erosion of alliance reliability that undermines deterrence. The analysis reveals a paradoxical condition: an administration that rhetorically prioritises peace and non-entanglement has simultaneously engaged in unilateral military actions (Venezuela, Nigeria), threatened force against NATO allies (Denmark/Greenland), pursued peace plans which critics characterise as capitulation to revisionist powers (Ukraine), and abandoned arms control frameworks. The paper concludes that while direct great-power war remains improbable, the systematic dismantling of institutional guardrails combined with miscalculation risks inherent in transactional foreign policy, elevates the probability of cascading conflicts that could draw major powers into confrontation. The emerging "new world order" is characterised not by balance or concert but by managed fragmentation, with the United States repositioning as a hemispheric power while delegating European security to European actors and competing with China primarily through economic instruments.